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Implemented second-order forecasts for stocks
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@ -221,6 +221,10 @@ export let CONSTANTS: IMap<any> = {
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LatestUpdate:
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`
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v0.47.0
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*
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* Scripts now start/stop instantly
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v0.47.0
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* Stock Market changes:
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** Implemented spread. Stock's now have bid and ask prices at which transactions occur
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@ -100,6 +100,12 @@ export class Stock {
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*/
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otlkMag: number;
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/**
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* Forecast of outlook magnitude. Essentially a second-order forecast.
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* Unlike 'otlkMag', this number is on an absolute scale from 0-100 (rather than 0-50)
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*/
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otlkMagForecast: number;
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/**
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* Average price of stocks that the player owns in the LONG position
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*/
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@ -173,6 +179,7 @@ export class Stock {
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this.mv = toNumber(p.mv);
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this.b = p.b;
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this.otlkMag = p.otlkMag;
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this.otlkMagForecast = this.getAbsoluteForecast();
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this.cap = getRandomInt(this.price * 1e3, this.price * 25e3);
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this.spreadPerc = toNumber(p.spreadPerc);
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this.priceMovementPerc = this.spreadPerc / (getRandomInt(10, 30) / 10);
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@ -189,11 +196,62 @@ export class Stock {
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this.maxShares = Math.round((this.totalShares * outstandingSharePercentage) / 1e5) * 1e5;
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}
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/**
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* Set the stock to a new price. Also updates the stock's previous price tracker
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*/
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changePrice(newPrice: number): void {
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this.lastPrice = this.price;
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this.price = newPrice;
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}
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/**
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* Change the stock's forecast during a stock market 'tick'.
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* The way a stock's forecast changes depends on various internal properties,
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* but is ultimately determined by RNG
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*/
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cycleForecast(changeAmt: number=0.1): void {
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const increaseChance = this.getForecastIncreaseChance();
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if (Math.random() < increaseChance) {
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// Forecast increases
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if (this.b) {
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this.otlkMag += changeAmt;
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} else {
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this.otlkMag -= changeAmt;
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}
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} else {
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// Forecast decreases
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if (this.b) {
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this.otlkMag -= changeAmt;
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} else {
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this.otlkMag += changeAmt;
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}
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}
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this.otlkMag = Math.min(this.otlkMag, 50);
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if (this.otlkMag < 0) {
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this.otlkMag *= -1;
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this.b = !this.b;
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}
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}
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/**
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* "Flip" the stock's second-order forecast. This can occur during a
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* stock market "cycle" (determined by RNG). It is used to simulate
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* RL stock market cycles and introduce volatility
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*/
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flipForecastForecast(): void {
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const diff = this.otlkMagForecast - 50;
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this.otlkMagForecast = 50 + (-1 * diff);
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}
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/**
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* Returns the stock's absolute forecast, which is a number between 0-100
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*/
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getAbsoluteForecast(): number {
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return this.b ? 50 + this.otlkMag : 50 - this.otlkMag;
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}
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/**
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* Return the price at which YOUR stock is bought (market ask price). Accounts for spread
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*/
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@ -208,6 +266,15 @@ export class Stock {
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return this.price * (1 - (this.spreadPerc / 100));
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}
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/**
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* Returns the chance (0-1 decimal) that a stock has of having its forecast increase
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*/
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getForecastIncreaseChance(): number {
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const diff = this.otlkMagForecast - this.getAbsoluteForecast();
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return (50 + Math.min(Math.max(diff, -45), 45)) / 100;
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}
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/**
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* Serialize the Stock to a JSON save state.
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*/
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@ -200,9 +200,15 @@ export function stockMarketCycle() {
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if (!(stock instanceof Stock)) { continue; }
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let thresh = 0.6;
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if (stock.b) { thresh = 0.4; }
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if (Math.random() < thresh) {
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stock.b = !stock.b;
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if (stock.otlkMag < 5) { stock.otlkMag += 0.1; }
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const roll = Math.random();
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if (roll < 0.4) {
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stock.flipForecastForecast();
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} else if (roll < 0.6) {
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stock.otlkMagForecast += 0.5;
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stock.otlkMagForecast = Math.min(stock.otlkMagForecast * 1.02, 50);
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} else if (roll < 0.8) {
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stock.otlkMagForecast -= 0.5;
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stock.otlkMagForecast = otlkMagForecast * (1 / 1.02);
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}
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}
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}
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@ -264,23 +270,14 @@ export function processStockPrices(numCycles=1) {
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}
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let otlkMagChange = stock.otlkMag * av;
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if (stock.otlkMag <= 0.1) {
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if (stock.otlkMag < 1) {
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otlkMagChange = 1;
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}
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if (c < 0.5) {
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stock.otlkMag += otlkMagChange;
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} else {
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stock.otlkMag -= otlkMagChange;
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}
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if (stock.otlkMag > 50) { stock.otlkMag = 50; } // Cap so the "forecast" is between 0 and 100
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if (stock.otlkMag < 0) {
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stock.otlkMag *= -1;
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stock.b = !stock.b;
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}
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stock.cycleForecast(otlkMagChange);
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// Shares required for price movement gradually approaches max over time
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stock.shareTxUntilMovement = Math.min(stock.shareTxUntilMovementUp + 5, stock.shareTxForMovement);
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stock.shareTxUntilMovement = Math.min(stock.shareTxUntilMovementDown + 5, stock.shareTxForMovement);
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stock.shareTxUntilMovementUp = Math.min(stock.shareTxUntilMovementUp + 5, stock.shareTxForMovement);
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stock.shareTxUntilMovementDown = Math.min(stock.shareTxUntilMovementDown + 5, stock.shareTxForMovement);
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}
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displayStockMarketContent();
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@ -27,6 +27,7 @@ export function StockTickerHeaderText(props: IProps): React.ReactElement {
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let plusOrMinus = stock.b; // True for "+", false for "-"
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if (stock.otlkMag < 0) { plusOrMinus = !plusOrMinus }
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hdrText += (plusOrMinus ? "+" : "-").repeat(Math.floor(Math.abs(stock.otlkMag) / 10) + 1);
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hdrText += ` - ${stock.getAbsoluteForecast()} / ${stock.otlkMagForecast}`;
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}
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let styleMarkup = {
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