Implemented second-order forecasts for stocks

src/Constants.ts

@@ -221,6 +221,10 @@ export let CONSTANTS: IMap<any> = {
 
     LatestUpdate:
     `
+    v0.47.0
+    * 
+    * Scripts now start/stop instantly
+
     v0.47.0
     * Stock Market changes:
     ** Implemented spread. Stock's now have bid and ask prices at which transactions occur

src/StockMarket/Stock.ts

@@ -100,6 +100,12 @@ export class Stock {
      */
     otlkMag: number;
 
+    /**
+     * Forecast of outlook magnitude. Essentially a second-order forecast.
+     * Unlike 'otlkMag', this number is on an absolute scale from 0-100 (rather than 0-50)
+     */
+    otlkMagForecast: number;
+
     /**
      * Average price of stocks that the player owns in the LONG position
      */
@@ -173,6 +179,7 @@ export class Stock {
         this.mv                         = toNumber(p.mv);
         this.b                          = p.b;
         this.otlkMag                    = p.otlkMag;
+        this.otlkMagForecast            = this.getAbsoluteForecast();
         this.cap                        = getRandomInt(this.price * 1e3, this.price * 25e3);
         this.spreadPerc                 = toNumber(p.spreadPerc);
         this.priceMovementPerc          = this.spreadPerc / (getRandomInt(10, 30) / 10);
@@ -189,11 +196,62 @@ export class Stock {
         this.maxShares = Math.round((this.totalShares * outstandingSharePercentage) / 1e5) * 1e5;
     }
 
+    /**
+     * Set the stock to a new price. Also updates the stock's previous price tracker
+     */
     changePrice(newPrice: number): void {
         this.lastPrice = this.price;
         this.price = newPrice;
     }
 
+    /**
+     * Change the stock's forecast during a stock market 'tick'.
+     * The way a stock's forecast changes depends on various internal properties,
+     * but is ultimately determined by RNG
+     */
+    cycleForecast(changeAmt: number=0.1): void {
+        const increaseChance = this.getForecastIncreaseChance();
+
+        if (Math.random() < increaseChance) {
+            // Forecast increases
+            if (this.b) {
+                this.otlkMag += changeAmt;
+            } else {
+                this.otlkMag -= changeAmt;
+            }
+        } else {
+            // Forecast decreases
+            if (this.b) {
+                this.otlkMag -= changeAmt;
+            } else {
+                this.otlkMag += changeAmt;
+            }
+        }
+
+        this.otlkMag = Math.min(this.otlkMag, 50);
+        if (this.otlkMag < 0) {
+            this.otlkMag *= -1;
+            this.b = !this.b;
+        }
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * "Flip" the stock's second-order forecast. This can occur during a
+     * stock market "cycle" (determined by RNG). It is used to simulate
+     * RL stock market cycles and introduce volatility
+     */
+    flipForecastForecast(): void {
+        const diff = this.otlkMagForecast - 50;
+        this.otlkMagForecast = 50 + (-1 * diff);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Returns the stock's absolute forecast, which is a number between 0-100
+     */
+    getAbsoluteForecast(): number {
+        return this.b ? 50 + this.otlkMag : 50 - this.otlkMag;
+    }
+
     /**
      * Return the price at which YOUR stock is bought (market ask price). Accounts for spread
      */
@@ -208,6 +266,15 @@ export class Stock {
         return this.price * (1 - (this.spreadPerc / 100));
     }
 
+    /**
+     * Returns the chance (0-1 decimal) that a stock has of having its forecast increase
+     */
+    getForecastIncreaseChance(): number {
+        const diff = this.otlkMagForecast - this.getAbsoluteForecast();
+
+        return (50 + Math.min(Math.max(diff, -45), 45)) / 100;
+    }
+
     /**
      * Serialize the Stock to a JSON save state.
      */

src/StockMarket/StockMarket.jsx

@@ -200,9 +200,15 @@ export function stockMarketCycle() {
         if (!(stock instanceof Stock)) { continue; }
         let thresh = 0.6;
         if (stock.b) { thresh = 0.4; }
-        if (Math.random() < thresh) {
-            stock.b = !stock.b;
-            if (stock.otlkMag < 5) { stock.otlkMag += 0.1; }
+        const roll = Math.random();
+        if (roll < 0.4) {
+            stock.flipForecastForecast();
+        } else if (roll < 0.6) {
+            stock.otlkMagForecast += 0.5;
+            stock.otlkMagForecast = Math.min(stock.otlkMagForecast * 1.02, 50);
+        } else if (roll < 0.8) {
+            stock.otlkMagForecast -= 0.5;
+            stock.otlkMagForecast = otlkMagForecast * (1 / 1.02);
         }
     }
 }
@@ -264,23 +270,14 @@ export function processStockPrices(numCycles=1) {
         }
 
         let otlkMagChange = stock.otlkMag * av;
-        if (stock.otlkMag <= 0.1) {
+        if (stock.otlkMag < 1) {
             otlkMagChange = 1;
         }
-        if (c < 0.5) {
-            stock.otlkMag += otlkMagChange;
-        } else {
-            stock.otlkMag -= otlkMagChange;
-        }
-        if (stock.otlkMag > 50) { stock.otlkMag = 50; } // Cap so the "forecast" is between 0 and 100
-        if (stock.otlkMag < 0) {
-            stock.otlkMag *= -1;
-            stock.b = !stock.b;
-        }
+        stock.cycleForecast(otlkMagChange);
 
         // Shares required for price movement gradually approaches max over time
-        stock.shareTxUntilMovement = Math.min(stock.shareTxUntilMovementUp + 5, stock.shareTxForMovement);
-        stock.shareTxUntilMovement = Math.min(stock.shareTxUntilMovementDown + 5, stock.shareTxForMovement);
+        stock.shareTxUntilMovementUp = Math.min(stock.shareTxUntilMovementUp + 5, stock.shareTxForMovement);
+        stock.shareTxUntilMovementDown = Math.min(stock.shareTxUntilMovementDown + 5, stock.shareTxForMovement);
     }
 
     displayStockMarketContent();

src/StockMarket/ui/StockTickerHeaderText.tsx

@@ -27,6 +27,7 @@ export function StockTickerHeaderText(props: IProps): React.ReactElement {
         let plusOrMinus = stock.b; // True for "+", false for "-"
         if (stock.otlkMag < 0) { plusOrMinus = !plusOrMinus }
         hdrText += (plusOrMinus ? "+" : "-").repeat(Math.floor(Math.abs(stock.otlkMag) / 10) + 1);
+        hdrText += ` - ${stock.getAbsoluteForecast()} / ${stock.otlkMagForecast}`;
     }
 
     let styleMarkup = {